Iran

After what feels like a lifetime, I am going to start a new series of blog posts. My career which has gone to an all time low has failed to produce an outlet for me. I have decided to write again as desperate attempt to keep my faculties from shutting down.

Iran seems to be the flavour of the month. The Arab Spring has left the Middle East in confusion and uncertainty. To those of you who are just joining the show, the Arab Spring was a round of protests that sparked off across the Middle East starting from Tunisia. This led to several dictatorships to being toppled and newly elected governments to come up.

Let’s try to understand the Iranian situation a bit

Iran has oil, lots of it. The second largest reserve of conventional oil in the world

So naturally, the world, especially America would be highly interested in it.

Iran’s incumbent government believes it has the power to be a dominant force in the Middle East. So, as a show of strength, they have decided to pursue a nuclear programme.

Iran also has a strategic advantage over the Strait of Hormuz, which handles major oil traffic from Saudi Arabian ports. US interest in this area has been prominent with the establishment of a base on the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia and patrolling by destroyer class ships since time immemorial

Israel doesn’t like Iran very much because the latter has been funding the Hamas and the Hezbollah to wreak havoc onIsrael.

The US is run by the Israelis is a little known fact either by sympathy or by being present in the power corridors of the US

The US has been looking for a reason to attack Iran since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came into power in 2005 which coincides with Israel’s falling out with Iran. The progress of the nuclear program has now fallen into the lap of the US. They have quickly enforced sanctions on Iranian trading especially its oil.

Sanctions have been successful in halving the Iranian rial and putting a cash crunch on the country.

India has opposed the sanctions and continued importing oil from Iran

India and China are major importers of Iranian oil. 20% of India’s crude imports are from Iran. ONGC, in 2009, announced plans of investing $5 billion in Iran to set up a gas field.

India cannot go ahead with the sanctions because any such move would affect crude prices unfavourably. Saudi has promised to up its production to cover any glut that stopping Iran crude would create. However, India knows better. The very fact that there might be an attack on Iran has raised the crude price to $120 per barrel this amply shows how volatile the market is. India can’t have that as the UPA government has just about managed to soften inflation.

Israelis targeted in bomb attacks in Delhi and Bangkok.

Israel blames Iran for it. Delhi opposes any such view.

Syria is still fighting away at their incumbent despot President Bashar al-Assad who was responsible for the Hama Massacre which was so gruesome that it gave rise to the term “Hama Rules”, which means No Rules.

Iran supports Syria

The UN has not done anything substantial in quelling the problem in Syria because India and Chinahas opposed any such ruling to protect their interests with Iran.

What will be the outcome?

Republicans will take power in the US and along with the Israelis, would attack Iran. Destroy and decimate it, then divide the oil among them.

Americans will make movies and sitcoms based on the war and sell it to an eager audience

Who will gain from all this?

Certainly not the people of Syria